- U.S. missile stockpiles were low before the war on Iran began on Feb. 28, and five months of fighting have severely depleted key munitions, including Patriot, THAAD, and Tomahawk missiles.
- Experts warn of long-term strategic implications and that it will take years to rebuild stockpiles to pre-war levels, which were already too low.
- President Trump claimed the U.S. has a 'virtual unlimited supply' of missiles, but acknowledged tighter supply for certain types amid reports of shortages.
- Pentagon officials denied the reported shortages, asserting the U.S. military remains powerful with a deep, ready arsenal.
- The war on Iran has depleted key munitions including Patriot, THAAD, and Tomahawk missiles, with about half of Patriot and THAAD inventories and a third of Tomahawk used.
- Refilling missile stockpiles will take years due to manufacturing constraints, with defense missile levels not expected to recover until mid-2029 and Tomahawk levels until 2030 or 2031.
- Mark F. Cancian warned of a 'window of vulnerability' if the war continues, especially regarding a potential conflict with China.
President Trump’s assertion of a 'virtual unlimited' missile supply contrasts sharply with expert warnings about the depletion of U.S. stockpiles amid ongoing conflicts.
Experts indicate that the U.S. has severely depleted key missile inventories, leaving the nation vulnerable for years.
"This really has long-term strategic implications for the United States," said Kelly A. Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.2
The war in the Middle East has exacerbated existing shortages, with the U.S. having used approximately half of its Patriot and THAAD inventories and a third of its Tomahawk missiles.15
Mark F. Cancian, lead author of a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis, warned that the remaining inventory could be exhausted if conflicts continue.
"For a war against Iran, we could continue that for some time, for months," Cancian noted, highlighting a potential 'window of vulnerability' for the U.S.7
Despite Trump’s claims, Pentagon officials have labeled reports of shortages as "false," asserting that the military remains the most powerful fighting force.4
"America’s military remains the most powerful fighting force on earth. We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President’s choosing," said Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell.
However, experts caution that refilling missile stockpiles will take years due to manufacturing constraints, with pre-war levels not expected until 2029 for defense missiles and 2030 or 2031 for Tomahawk missiles.6
“The war on Iran has used about half of Patriot and THAAD inventories and a third of Tomahawk missiles, per a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell called the shortage reports 'false,' asserting the military retains a 'deep, ready arsenal.'”
