Analysts express skepticism on sustainability of S&P 500's recent rally amid tariff pauses

Despite a remarkable recovery, with the S&P 500 just 3% shy of its record high, analysts warn that the market's rally may be fragile due to ongoing tariff uncertainties and inflation concerns.

Sources:
The Wilton BulletinMFortune+1
Updated 11m ago
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Sources: The Wilton BulletinFortuneM+1
Analysts are cautious about the S&P 500's recent rally, which surged 5.3% this week following a 90-day tariff pause by President Trump.
Despite this rebound, concerns linger over the sustainability of the rally amid ongoing trade tensions.

The S&P 500, which had previously dropped 12% in early April, is now just 3% below its record high set in mid-February.
While U.S. companies have reported profits exceeding expectations, many are uncertain about future conditions.

Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that recent U.S.-China talks have eased trade tensions, but analysts warn that the stock rally remains fragile.

Trump's tariff pause, while significant, does not eliminate the risk of future tariffs, with administration officials indicating a baseline of 10%.

The market's recent performance has been marked by volatility, with investors looking past disappointing consumer sentiment data and inflation concerns.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8, the second-lowest reading on record.
Sources: The Wilton BulletinFortune
Analysts are expressing skepticism about the sustainability of the S&P 500's recent rally, which saw a 5.3% increase this week, following a 90-day tariff pause announced by President Trump. Concerns remain over ongoing trade tensions and the potential fragility of the stock market's recovery.
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The Headline

S&P 500's rally and skepticism

U.S.-China talks last weekend that produced a major easing of trade tensions reinforced the idea that markets have passed the peak of tariff uncertainty.
Michael Brown
senior research strategist at Pepperstone
Fortune
Key Facts
  • President Trump announced a '90-day PAUSE' for most tariffs on April 9, leading to a 9.5% surge in the S&P 500, marking one of its best days ever.
  • The S&P 500 rallied 5.3% this week, turning positive for 2025, and is now just 3% below its record high.
  • Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of the recent rally, noting that the tariff drama is hardly over.The Wilton Bulletin
Key Stats at a Glance
Recent rally of S&P 500
5.3%
The Wilton Bulletin
Surge in S&P 500 after tariff pause
9.5%
The Wilton Bulletin

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Other Updates

Market outlook and analysis

Key Facts
  • Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee remains bullish, citing better tariff visibility and potential tax cuts.Fortune
  • Markets are currently repricing the stagflation risk, as previous concerns about tariffs causing inflation have not been supported by data.Cnbc
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Background Context

Market conditions and uncertainties

Key Facts
  • Conditions appeared dire for the stock market in early April when President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, causing the S&P 500 to drop 12% in four days.
  • Despite the recent rally, many companies have warned they are unsure about what lies ahead, indicating ongoing uncertainty.M
  • The S&P 500 is now just 3% below its record high set in mid-February, marking a stunning rebound from its previous lows.
Key Stats at a Glance
Drop in S&P 500 due to tariffs
12%
The Wilton Bulletin
Current standing of S&P 500
3%
Fortune
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