SpaceX valuation spectrum revealed: ARK projects $1.7T to $3.1T by 2030

ARK Investment Management has unveiled a valuation spectrum for SpaceX, projecting the aerospace giant's enterprise value to range from $1.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a base-case estimate of $2.5 trillion. This forecast, developed in collaboration with aerospace research collective Mach33, is grounded in a Monte Carlo simulation model that incorporates 17 independent variables, reflecting SpaceX's operational history and ambitious growth plans.

Central to ARK's bullish outlook is the anticipated success of SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet network, which is expected to generate $300 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s. This revenue stream is a key driver behind the company's soaring valuation and underpins the firm's confidence in a compound annual return of 38% from the current valuation of $350 billion as of December 2024.

ARK frames the $2.5 trillion valuation as the "expected" outcome, while acknowledging a range of possibilities with a bear case at $1.7 trillion and a bull case reaching $3.1 trillion. The open-source nature of the model, published on GitHub, adds transparency to the assumptions and variables influencing these projections.

This valuation spectrum highlights the transformative potential of SpaceX's ventures, particularly Starlink, in reshaping the satellite internet market and driving substantial investor returns over the next decade.

Key quote: "This base-case valuation implies a compound annual return of 38% from the company’s December 2024 funding round at $350 billion."

Key stat: "Starlink satellite internet network is expected to generate $300 billion in annual revenue by the mid-2030s."

ARK Investment Management projects SpaceX's valuation to range from $1.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion by 2030, with a base case of $2.5 trillion driven by Starlink's expected $300 billion annual revenue. The forecast implies a 38% compound annual return from a $350 billion 2024 valuation.