India's total fertility rate has declined to
1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of
2.1, according to the UNFPA's State of World Population 2025 report.
Despite this decline, India continues to have a significant youth population, with
24% under the age of 14 and a large share of its population in the working-age bracket. This demographic momentum means the youth bulge persists even as fertility rates fall.
The drop in fertility is the result of decades of progress including
better education for girls, wider access to contraception, urbanization, and changing social norms. In 1960, the average woman had nearly six children; today, that number is about two.
However, the report highlights regional disparities, noting that states like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh still experience high fertility rates due to
poor contraceptive and health services and entrenched gender norms. This creates a duality of high and low fertility within the country.
The UNFPA warns against alarmist narratives about population collapse, emphasizing instead the need to address
unmet reproductive goals and barriers women face in making informed reproductive choices.
"The true crisis lies in unmet reproductive goals," the report states, calling for a shift from panic to targeted reproductive health interventions.
India's population is projected to reach
1.46 billion by 2025, maintaining its status as the world's most populous country.
This complex demographic landscape underscores the importance of nuanced policy responses that balance the challenges of a youthful population with the realities of declining fertility.
Sources: 
India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1, yet 24% of its population remains under age 14. Despite slower birth rates, India’s youth bulge persists, driven by decades of demographic momentum and uneven regional fertility patterns.
