With a rapidly slowing economy, even if inflation is running well above 2%, I expect the risk of recession would outweigh the risk of escalating inflation, especially if the effects of tariffs in raising inflation are expected to be short lived.
Waller
Considering all this uncertainty, it is impossible to forecast how the economy will evolve very far into the future.
Federal Reserve governor
One-year inflation expectations maximum since 1981
2k
Percentage of respondents expecting price increases
73%
Percentage decline of S&P 500 from April 2 announcement
4%
Year-to-date decline of S&P 500
8%
S&P 500 increase on Monday
0.8%
Key Facts
- Economic Uncertainty from tariffs, immigration policy, and regulatory actions is confronting business leaders.
- Consumer Survey Support aligns with the Fed governor's perspective on inflation risks.
- Immediate Tariff Effects are imperative for businesses focusing on physical goods.
- Contingency Plans are crucial for addressing significant risks amid economic uncertainty.
- Uncertainty Challenges leaders, yet it demands immediate attention.