- Ukraine believes Russia is planning to mobilize an additional 300,000 troops for its war effort after parliamentary elections in September, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
- Russia plans to mobilize around 300,000 people after State Duma elections in September, but will do so without touching the country's major cities to minimize backlash, Zelenskiy stated.
- Zelenskiy added that Russia could draft hundreds of thousands more in 2027 for its key goal of capturing the rest of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region.
- Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has only once turned to forced mobilization to fill the ranks of its military: in autumn 2022.
- Putin has avoided more large-scale forced mobilization, seeing it as a threat to his image as provider of strength and stability to ordinary Russians.
- Moscow has relied on lucrative bonuses offered to those who sign a contract, with responsibility resting largely on regional authorities to meet tough recruitment quotas.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has indicated that Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 additional troops following the State Duma elections in September. This strategy aims to minimize political backlash by avoiding major urban centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Zelenskiy stated, "They are planning for a kind of 'peripheral mobilization.' As we understand, it won't happen in the central cities. But I don't think they will succeed in hiding it." This approach reflects a calculated move by President Vladimir Putin to maintain his image of strength while avoiding the mass exodus that occurred during the previous mobilization in autumn 2022, which saw hundreds of thousands flee Russia.
The upcoming elections are viewed as a litmus test for Putin's regime, and the Kremlin is expected to announce the draft after the elections to gauge public sentiment. Zelenskiy noted that the mobilized troops will either support ongoing offensives in the Donetsk region or create new threats along Ukraine's northern border.
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has relied on lucrative bonuses to attract recruits, with regional authorities tasked with meeting recruitment quotas. This strategy underscores the Kremlin's reluctance to resort to forced mobilization again, as it poses risks to Putin's political stability and public support.
“Zelenskiy warns Russia could draft hundreds of thousands more in 2027 for its goal of capturing Donetsk. The plan follows Moscow's reliance on contract bonuses and regional quotas since the 2022 mobilization triggered an exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians.”
