- President Donald Trump has privately questioned for months why the Iranian people are not toppling their leaders, and has returned to this theme on social media amid stalled diplomacy.
- Trump launched the conflict in late February with a call for a government takeover, advising the Iranian people it was their only chance for generations.
- By June, Trump insisted he never cared about regime change in Iran, claiming he was in negotiations with 'very rational people.'
- Last month, Trump ordered his envoys to halt discussions with Iran, leaving diplomacy at a standstill.
- This week, Trump returned to the concept of regime change, asking on social media, 'When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?'
- On Wednesday, Trump said he was prepared to order another heavy attack and was coy about arming Iranian dissidents.
- Trump has threatened further destruction and expressed confidence in the US position, citing control of the Hormuz Strait and Iran's collapsing economy.
- The administration's strategy shifted toward choking off Iran's finances, partly to prompt anger among disillusioned Iranians toward their leaders.
- Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the economic and military war, while US officials saw little intelligence indicating renewed protests would oust leaders.
- US intelligence assessments before the war concluded regime change was unlikely, and protests have been met with fierce crackdowns.
- Trump was coy about arming Iranian dissidents and acknowledged understanding their plight, noting they are being shot.
President Donald Trump has reignited discussions of regime change in Iran, questioning the lack of uprising among the Iranian populace. Despite his earlier claims of not prioritizing regime change, he has returned to this narrative as diplomatic efforts falter and conflict escalates.
Trump's recent social media post asked, “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?” This reflects a broader strategy shift, as the administration aims to weaken Iran's economy through sanctions, hoping to incite public discontent against the regime.
However, U.S. intelligence suggests little chance of a successful uprising, with protests met by severe crackdowns. “They’re being shot right now,” Trump acknowledged, recognizing the peril faced by dissenters.
Despite the dire economic conditions in Iran, officials report no significant intelligence indicating a renewed likelihood of protests leading to regime change. “We are apologetic that these problems exist,” stated Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, highlighting the ongoing economic and military strife.1213
Trump's administration has halted diplomatic discussions, focusing instead on military options and economic pressure. “I like our position now,” he stated, emphasizing control over the Hormuz Strait and Iran's collapsing economy.89
As the conflict continues, the prospect of a popular uprising remains uncertain, with the Iranian regime maintaining its grip on power amidst increasing turmoil.
“Trump's strategy includes choking off Iran's finances to prompt anger, but US officials see little intelligence that protests will oust leaders. Iran's President Pezeshkian acknowledged a 'full-scale economic, military, and security war' as Treasury measures were announced.”
