- Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as traders again priced in a U.S.-Iran agreement before it was signed, with WTI at $75.64, down $4.70 (5.85%); both benchmarks hit three-week lows on hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- U.S. officials signaled a deal could be near: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could come Tuesday or Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited progress in talks involving Iran and Oman, and President Donald Trump called an agreement “imminent.”
- Iran offered a different version: Tehran denied direct talks with Washington and said it is negotiating through mediators in Oman; Iran also seeks control over inbound shipping and visibility over outbound traffic.
- Shipping data undercut the market's optimism: only six vessels were tracked through Hormuz on Monday, down from seven a day earlier, and a cargo vessel was struck near Oman.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint: before the war, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas supply moved through it; Persian Gulf producers have been forced to slash output, and Saudi Aramco estimates the world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels since fighting began in February.
- Goldman Sachs expects Brent to remain between $80 and $90 until there is either a confirmed agreement or another major escalation; Brent was already below that range Tuesday afternoon.
- Oil prices have spent months whipping between peace headlines and missile strikes while physical flows remain badly impaired.
- The Strait of Hormuz closure and fallout from the war on Iran disrupted global energy flows, pushed up oil prices, and lifted Big Oil profits while household prices soared in the US and Europe.
- ExxonMobil, the largest US oil company, reported second-quarter earnings of $14.5bn, its highest quarterly profit in four years, helped by elevated oil prices and stronger refining margins.
- Chevron, the second-biggest US oil company, reported $12bn in second-quarter earnings, its highest quarterly profit in six years, beating analysts’ estimates.
- European majors also posted sharp profit gains: Shell more than doubled second-quarter earnings to nearly $10bn; TotalEnergies earnings rose 67 percent; and BP reported $5.73bn, more than double a year earlier.
- Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state-owned oil producer, reported quarterly earnings up 44 percent year-on-year to $32.69bn; its East-West Pipeline reduces reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for exports.
- Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said the average benchmark crude price stood at $96.68 per barrel in the second half of 2026, meaning producers whose exports were not affected by the Hormuz bottleneck benefited from higher prices and stronger demand.
- The energy sector led the S&P 500 with 135.3 percent year-on-year earnings growth in the second quarter of 2026, while pump prices climbed for households: US petrol averaged above $4 per gallon and UK petrol hit a new high of 160.85 pence per litre.
- President Donald Trump reacted to Big Oil’s profits by saying companies are “making too much money based on a shortage” and demanding they cut the retail price, the consumer price.
Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate dropping to $75.64 per barrel, as traders anticipated a U.S.-Iran agreement that has yet to materialize. President Trump described the deal as 'imminent', while actual shipping data showed little support for the optimism, with only six vessels tracked through the Strait of Hormuz.128910111216
Despite the uncertainty, Big Oil companies are reporting record profits. The U.S.'s largest oil company announced second-quarter earnings of $14.5 billion, marking its highest quarterly profits in four years, driven by elevated oil prices and strong refining margins. Similarly, the second-largest company reported $12 billion in earnings, its highest in six years.
The British-Dutch oil giant reported nearly $10 billion in earnings, while Saudi Aramco's profits rose 44 percent year-on-year to $32.69 billion. These profits come amid soaring consumer prices, with petrol averaging above $4 per gallon in the U.S. and hitting 160.85 British pence per litre in the U.K.22252627
Trump criticized the oil companies for their profits, stating, 'They’re going to give some of that back to the public' and urged them to lower retail prices. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy flows, leading to significant price fluctuations and impacting consumers worldwide.
“Shipping data undercut Tuesday’s enthusiasm: only six vessels moved through Hormuz on Monday, down from seven a day earlier, and a cargo vessel was struck near Oman. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to stay between $80 and $90 until a deal is confirmed or another major escalation.”
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