- The United States and Iran appear locked into their six-month-old war, with both lacking a clear path to victory and each clinging to unrealistic ideas about what their adversary will accept to end the conflict.
- Negotiations brokered by multiple third parties have led nowhere, and experts say Tehran’s goal is to make the conflict costly enough to deter future U.S. and Israeli attacks.
- Iran’s doctrine is shifting from defensive deterrence toward offensive coercion, as stated by Negar Mortazavi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy.
- Iran retains the capacity for asymmetric operations outside the region, and may be holding a terror attack in the West as an ace up its sleeve, according to Colin Clarke of the Soufan Group.
- The IRGC maintains departments for actions abroad and has carried out terror attacks and assassination plots, with Trump and his family likely on Iran’s hit list.
- The Pentagon is focused on protecting oil transit through a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, but only a fraction of the daily volume is passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and Iran are entrenched in a six-month conflict with no clear resolution in sight. Both sides cling to unrealistic expectations, complicating peace efforts.
Over 750 U.S. service members have been wounded and 18 killed since the war began on February 28, while Iran faces immense suffering, with thousands killed and a devastated economy due to sanctions and war.
The Pentagon's focus has shifted to protecting oil transit through the Persian Gulf, aiming to restore maritime trade to pre-war levels, yet only a fraction of the daily volume is passing through the Strait of Hormuz.1112
Negotiations have stalled, with experts suggesting Tehran aims to make the conflict costly enough to deter future U.S. and Israeli attacks.23
“The lesson in Tehran is that neither diplomacy nor a temporary ceasefire has yet produced durable restraint from the United States,” says Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.
Iran's strategy is evolving from defensive deterrence to offensive coercion, indicating a willingness to conduct asymmetric operations beyond its borders.4567
Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Group, warns that Iran retains the capacity for terror attacks against U.S. interests, especially following the killing of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani.8910
“The assassinations are definitely something to take very seriously,” Clarke adds, highlighting ongoing threats against U.S. officials.
“Iran's doctrine is shifting from defensive deterrence toward offensive coercion, according to Negar Mortazavi, who says Tehran's goal is to make the conflict costly enough to deter future U.S. and Israeli attacks. Colin Clarke warns Iran may be holding a terror attack in the West as an ace, with Trump and his family likely on Iran's hit list.”
Rolling Stone
