- September employment grew by only 29,000 jobs, missing the 84,000 expected by analysts, according to government data.
- The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2 percent as reported by the Labor Department.
- Fed policymakers signaled they may skip an October rate hike but are likely to raise rates in December.
- Traders now see about a one-in-four chance of an October hike and a high probability of a December increase.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down job figures for July and August by a combined 60,000 jobs, with July showing a loss.
- The revision to July's data showed that the world's largest economy lost jobs that month, as opposed to posting a gain of 21,000 as previously reported.
The U.S. economy's job growth faltered in September, with only 29,000 jobs added, significantly below the 84,000 expected by analysts. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting economic strains from the ongoing Iran war and immigration enforcement.12
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also revised down job figures for July and August by a combined 60,000 jobs, indicating a troubling trend.5
"With... immigrant labor losing their status to work in the US, that restriction in labor supply is causing subdued labor growth now for health care," said Ken Kim, senior economist at KPMG.
Despite the weak job growth, average hourly earnings rose by 3.0% year-on-year, although wages continue to lag behind high inflation, leading to real wage losses for many workers.
The Federal Reserve is likely to skip an interest rate hike in October, with traders now seeing a one-in-four chance of a hike, but a higher probability for a December increase.34
"It would now take a very strong CPI to make the October meeting live," noted Michael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist.
The upcoming consumer price index report will be crucial in shaping the Fed's decisions moving forward.
“The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, and the BLS revised down July and August payrolls by a combined 60,000 jobs. Wage growth slowed to 3.0 percent year-on-year, still trailing inflation, which has eroded real wages by 0.7 percent since the start of the Iran war.”
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