- Russian oil refining fell to an estimated 3.6 million barrels per day in July, marking the lowest level since May 2002, according to EA Analytics data cited by Bloomberg.
- Ukraine's drone campaign intensified in July, with 18 refineries targeted, surpassing the previous record of 17 attacks set in May.
- Bloomberg reported a total of 30 attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure in July, the second-highest monthly total since the full-scale invasion began.
- In the final week of July, three large refineries were hit in the last three days and four more were struck over the weekend.
- Historically, between 2020 and 2025, Russian refineries processed between 5.3 million and 5.6 million barrels per day during July.
- Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces initially focused on refineries in the first half of July before shifting their attention to tankers later in the month.
- In May, Ukraine set a record with 17 refinery attacks, which was later surpassed in July.
Ukraine's drone campaign has significantly impacted Russian oil refining, driving output down to 3.6 million barrels per day in July, the lowest since May 2002. This represents a one-third decline from the seasonal average, as Ukrainian forces targeted 18 refineries, including the major Omsk facility, located over 2,500 kilometers from Ukraine.12
The intensified strikes in July included attacks on five large oil tankers and various port infrastructures, totaling 30 attacks on oil facilities, the second-highest monthly total since the invasion began. The previous record was 32 attacks in May.37
According to Jorge Leon from Rystad Energy, while Russia can reroute some crude through Baltic ports, the pipeline and storage capacity is insufficient to replace all Black Sea export volumes.
The decline in refining capacity is critical as oil revenue is vital for Moscow amid the ongoing conflict. Sergei Vakulenko from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center noted that the future of Russian oil exports will depend on Ukraine's drone capabilities and target selection.
As the war enters its fifth year, the growing impact of Ukraine's drone campaign on Russia's oil industry is becoming increasingly evident, with potential long-term implications for global oil markets.
“Russian refineries processed 3.6 million barrels a day in July, the lowest since May 2002 and about one-third below the seasonal average. Ukraine hit 18 refineries, including the 440,000-barrel-per-day Omsk plant, plus five tankers, five port facilities and two pipelines, according to Bloomberg.”
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The Moscow Times
