- Signals of a 'massive' US attack on Iran are increasing, but experts are skeptical that an intensified air strike campaign will break Tehran or force tough concessions at the negotiating table.
- President Trump warned the U.S. is "locked and loaded" and a U.S. official stated that the military is prepared for intensified action if he gives the green light.
- A new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Iran is unlikely to soften its negotiating stance as a result of intensified strikes.
- Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, stated that bombing from the air is not going to change Iran's calculation and destroys any chance of diplomacy.
- A former senior U.S. intelligence official indicated that without enforcing the naval blockade and economic strategy, progress will be difficult, stating, "you’re not going to bomb yourself into a ceasefire."
- Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, stated that "air power’s got limits" and emphasized the need to pair military action with diplomatic, informational, and economic tools.
- Mick Mulroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, expressed uncertainty about whether stronger airstrikes will bring Iran to the negotiating table, suggesting the U.S. needs a new nuclear agreement.
- Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iranian security, noted that the U.S. is running out of strategic targets while Iran effectively hides its assets; killing key leaders like Ahmad Vahidi might influence the situation.
Experts are doubtful that an intensified U.S. air strike campaign will compel Iran to negotiate, with many asserting that such actions could exacerbate regional tensions.1
Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, stated, “I don’t think it will change Iran’s calculation in any way, because from Iran’s perspective, this is a war of survival for them.”56
Michael “Mick” Mulroy, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, remarked that the U.S. options are limited, noting, “It is unclear if a more muscular air strikes campaign will bring Iran to the table.”
A recent U.S. intelligence assessment supports this view, indicating that Iran is unlikely to soften its stance due to increased military pressure.
“The only thing that will happen is that... the entire region is going to suffer more,” Azodi added, emphasizing the potential for diplomatic efforts to be undermined.
Trump has indicated that the U.S. military is ready to act, stating, “We’re locked and loaded,” while a U.S. official confirmed preparations for intensified action if ordered.23
However, experts like Saeid Golkar warn that the U.S. is running out of viable targets, as Iran has become adept at concealing its military assets.121314
“Most of these targets are not very important, or not very strategic,” Golkar noted, suggesting that significant figures within Iran's military leadership would need to be targeted to influence negotiations.
Overall, the prospect of a successful air campaign remains uncertain, with many advocating for a balanced approach that includes economic measures alongside military action.
“A new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded Iran is unlikely to soften its negotiating stance as result of intensified strikes. Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, acknowledged 'air power's got limits' and urged pairing military action with diplomatic, informational, and economic tools.”
