- Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia had a candid call with Trump, emphasizing the need for dialogue to reduce escalation in the region.
- In a Saturday night post, Trump claimed the U.S. was 'locked and loaded' against Iran but later stated he was asked by Iran and other Middle Eastern countries to hold off, suggesting that perimeters of a deal had been agreed.
- Simon Marks reported that Trump has once again backed down from his threats against Iran, leading to perceptions that he is now the weakest player in the situation.
- It has been 17 months since Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his inability to win the war against Russia.
- Traders have recognized that Trump's statements on Truth Social are not credible, diminishing their impact.
- Last week, Iran demonstrated its resilience by closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching attacks through Houthi proxies on Saudi Arabia.
President Trump has once again backed down from military threats against Iran, following a candid conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who emphasized the need for dialogue to prevent escalation.13
MBS's message was clear: the U.S. no longer holds the cards in the Iran conflict. “If the United States launches major strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states will likely bear the immediate consequences,” he warned.
This retreat comes as Trump's approval ratings plummet, with only 28% of Americans supporting his handling of the conflict and a mere 21% approving of his response to rising gas prices.
Trump's claims of a new deal with Iran have been met with skepticism, as observers note that “there is no indication that any breakthrough is at hand”. Traders have already dismissed his declarations as unreliable, indicating a loss of confidence in his leadership.5
The situation is further complicated by Iran's recent actions, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and pre-emptive attacks on Saudi Arabia, showcasing Tehran's resilience.6
As regional leaders prioritize stability over confrontation, Trump's position appears increasingly precarious, echoing sentiments expressed by MBS that “preserving regional stability has become a higher priority than pursuing a decisive confrontation with Tehran.”
“A CNN poll finds 28% approve Trump's handling of the Iran conflict and 21% approve his handling of gas price spikes; traders stopped believing his Truth Social declarations weeks ago. Marks recalls Trump berating Ukrainian President Zelensky in the Oval Office 17 months ago, a message Saudi Arabia's leader just repeated to him about Iran.”
