- On Monday, Trump said he paused major attacks at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates; oil prices fell, and the Pentagon said it remained 'locked and loaded'.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz were in their 'final stages', and Tehran also spoke by phone with Saudi and Pakistani officials.
- The Strait of Hormuz was essentially closed by Iran in early March; Iran allowed few ships until it signed a June 17 memorandum of understanding with the US, and the strait was closed again last week.
- Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran would not host a delegation or be a guest of a country during these days; it was unclear if that excluded indirect talks via mediators.
- Analysts were skeptical of the 'imminent' deal: Trita Parsi said Trump’s escalations and cancellations harmed prospects, Alan Eyre doubted real talks, and Charles Kupchan said a fuller nuclear peace agreement remains far more elusive.
President Donald Trump announced that negotiations with Iran are imminent, focusing on the critical Strait of Hormuz and denuclearization. Trump stated, "And the deal is imminent, having to do with the Hormuz Strait and ultimately the denuclearisation of Iran."3
However, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, clarified, "We are not going to host a delegation or be guests of a country during these days," leaving the nature of the talks uncertain.
Reports indicate that intermediaries from Pakistan and Qatar may facilitate discussions, with Al Jazeera noting that Iran is engaging in bilateral talks with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz.2
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, expressed skepticism about the negotiations, stating, "Nothing has changed. President Trump has promised to annihilate Iran five or six times and then backs down at the last minute."5
Despite the uncertainty, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned that negotiations with Oman are in their "final stages," highlighting the urgency of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil is shipped.
Brent crude futures fell by 4.64% to $83.85 per barrel amid these developments, while US officials remain prepared for potential military action against Iran, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stating the Pentagon is ready to attack at "levels not seen since World War II."
“Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz are in their 'final stages' after the waterway was closed again last week. Trump said he paused major attacks at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while the Pentagon said it remains 'locked and loaded'.”
