- On Sunday, Donald Trump announced that an agreement with Iran is imminent and that new talks would commence on Monday.
- On Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated it would not host a delegation or be a guest of any country during the talks.
- In early March, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli air strikes that began on February 28.
- Iran permitted few ships to pass through the strait until it signed a memorandum of understanding with the US on June 17.
- Following the MOU's vague wording, Iran attacked several ships that were following an Oman-approved route.
- On Friday, Trump called off major attacks on Iran at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are imminent, focusing on the critical Hormuz Strait and denuclearization. Trump emphasized, "the deal is imminent, having to do with the Hormuz Strait and ultimately the denuclearisation of Iran."1
However, Iranian officials have expressed skepticism. Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated, "We are not going to host a delegation or be guests of a country during these days."2
Despite this, reports indicate that intermediaries from Oman and Pakistan are preparing to facilitate indirect talks. Al Jazeera's Osama Bin Javaid noted that mediators are ready to fly to Tehran for discussions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned that negotiations with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are in their "final stages."
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, expressed doubt about the negotiations, stating, "Nothing has changed. President Trump has promised to annihilate Iran five or six times and then backs down at the last minute."
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes a deal on the Strait of Hormuz is achievable, but a comprehensive peace agreement on Iran's nuclear program remains elusive.
As tensions rise, Trump revealed he called off major attacks on Iran at the request of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who urged him to pursue a deal instead.6
Brent crude futures fell significantly, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the region.
“Trita Parsi said Trump has promised to annihilate Iran five or six times and then backed down, making a negotiated deal highly doubtful. Charles Kupchan said a Strait of Hormuz deal is achievable but a fuller nuclear agreement remains far more elusive.”
