- Tariff refunds from the Trump administration have returned more than $100 billion to U.S. businesses, significantly boosting the economy.
- In August, over 40 S&P 500 companies reported $9.6 billion in tariff refunds, with Apple leading at $2.2 billion.
- The New York Fed survey in July indicated that 47% of service firms and 44% of manufacturers plan to raise prices further.
- The current quarter sees refunds contributing 0.2 percentage points to projected 4.3% GDP growth.
- FedEx has started cutting checks to shippers this month as part of the refund process.
- The tariff refunds represent about 60% of the $166 billion in revenues collected from import taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in February.
- The weak jobs report for July was attributed to seasonal quirks, with adjustments indicating the economy would have added 70,000 jobs instead of losing 23,000 jobs.
Tariff refunds exceeding $100 billion are significantly impacting U.S. corporate profits and GDP growth, which is projected to reach 4.3% in the third quarter. Chief Economist Torsten Slok highlighted that these refunds are not only enhancing corporate earnings but also contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth.146
So far, over 40 S&P 500 companies have reported around $9.6 billion in tariff refunds, with Apple leading at nearly $2.2 billion. Other notable companies include Nike at $986 million, FedEx at about $800 million, Amazon at $640 million, and GM at $500 million.25
The refunds represent about 60% of the $166 billion collected from import taxes under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Slok noted that the economy is supported by a growing set of tailwinds, including the ongoing AI spending boom and tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Despite a surprisingly weak jobs report for July, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, Slok argued that the market is underestimating the current strength of growth. He stated, “In short, the market is underestimating how strong growth is right now.” Jobless claims remain around 200,000 weekly, and job openings have been rising, indicating a resilient labor market.37
The New York Fed reported that a significant percentage of service firms and manufacturers plan to raise prices, suggesting that the impact of tariff refunds on inflation may be limited. Amazon and Costco have indicated intentions to pass refunds to customers, while FedEx is set to distribute checks to shippers this month.
“Over $100 billion has been returned to businesses, with Apple alone receiving nearly $2.2 billion. The New York Fed survey shows 47% of service firms and 44% of manufacturers still plan to raise prices, but refunds may slow the passthrough.”
