- This year's El Niño is on track to be the strongest on record, threatening to unleash extreme weather across the globe and make 2027 the hottest recorded year by far.
- Daily sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are currently about 2.6 degrees Celsius above a rolling 30-year-average, and forecasts put El Niño on course to peak at a 3.9 degrees Celsius anomaly this November, well above the 3-degree anomaly in 2015.
- NOAA in February adopted the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI) to better represent the ocean-atmosphere system driving ENSO impacts, and on that scale NOAA puts the chances at 69% that this El Niño will be the strongest in its dataset going back to 1950.
- The head of long-range forecasting at the UK's Met Office warned it is expected to be the most 'intense' El Niño in more than a century.
- Climate scientists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler calculate El Niño will add 0.3 degrees Celsius to global warming, making 2027 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
- Stronger El Niño events mean more expected impacts, such as Indonesia's long, intense dry season feeding wildfires that have burned hundreds of thousands of hectares, though none are guaranteed, said Michelle L'Heureux, ENSO team lead at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
This year's El Niño is on track to be the strongest on record, with predictions indicating it could lead to extreme weather events worldwide. The UK's Met Office has warned that this El Niño may be the most intense in over a century.1
El Niño, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to shift eastward in the Pacific. This phenomenon can cause significant atmospheric changes, leading to increased storms and altered weather patterns globally. Emily Becker, a climate scientist, noted that these warmer surface temperatures can create ripple effects throughout the atmosphere.
Currently, sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average, with forecasts suggesting a peak anomaly of 3.9 degrees Celsius this November, surpassing the 3-degree anomaly recorded during the 2015 El Niño.23
According to climate scientists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler, this El Niño could temporarily increase global temperatures by 0.3 degrees Celsius, pushing 2027's average to 1.76 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This represents a decade's worth of warming compressed into a single year.7
The NOAA has indicated a 69% chance that this El Niño will be the strongest since 1950, highlighting the potential for significant climate impacts in the coming years.
“Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are already 2.6°C above average, with forecasts peaking at a 3.9°C anomaly this November. NOAA's new RONI index puts 69% odds this El Niño will be the strongest since 1950, while Indonesia's dry season has fueled wildfires burning hundreds of thousands of hectares.”
CGTN
