- AI-related companies have added roughly $27 trillion in market value since late 2022.
- US tech investment as a share of GDP has surpassed its 1990s peak, with spending plans from major cloud and computing companies for 2026 nearly 50% higher than estimates from just six months ago, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
- Goldman Sachs Research estimates the potential AI-related capital revenues to US companies at roughly $9 trillion.
- Unlike the dotcom era in the late 1990s, corporate profits have risen to new highs rather than deteriorating, and the current account deficit has narrowed.
- The AI boom currently may be offsetting a more fragile macro backdrop, with conventional valuations of the US equity market being high by historical standards.
Stock market valuations have surged dramatically as AI-related companies have added approximately $27 trillion in market value since late 2022. This surge has coincided with a significant increase in US tech investment, which has now surpassed its 1990s peak.12
According to Goldman Sachs Research, spending plans from major cloud and computing companies for 2026 are nearly 50% higher than estimates made just six months ago. Unlike the dotcom era, corporate profits have risen to new highs, and the current account deficit has narrowed, indicating a more stable economic environment.4
The report highlights that market gains have been more driven by earnings than by valuations, suggesting a healthier market dynamic. Goldman Sachs estimates that the potential additional profits from AI productivity gains could reach around $9 trillion for US companies. The most credible scenarios for substantial stock gains depend on the assumption that AI companies will capture a larger share of total profits compared to average companies.3
While comparisons to the late 1990s are more reassuring, experts caution against overemphasizing this point, noting that the current AI boom may be offsetting a more fragile macroeconomic backdrop.56
“Goldman Sachs Research highlights that US tech investment as a share of GDP is now nearly 50% higher than estimates from just six months ago. Additionally, the potential profits from AI productivity gains are estimated at roughly $9 trillion, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics.”
Goldman Sachs
