- US oil companies have posted their biggest profits since 2022, with a report indicating a quarterly profit of $12 billion in adjusted earnings on July 31.
- Since the war began on February 28, Brent crude prices have risen about 22 percent, from $72 to $88 a barrel.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial traffic, impacting global oil shipments.
- Iran and Iran-backed groups have conducted at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across GCC countries since the war began.
- The July 27 strike on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq processing complex is one of the most critical attacks on oil infrastructure.
- Energy infrastructure has been hit hardest, with oil and gas facilities accounting for nearly half of all strikes on nonmilitary targets.
- The Iranian leadership is divided over whether to seek a deal to end the war or continue fighting, with hardliners accusing moderates of mismanaging the economy.
- Pragmatists and technocrats in Iran advocate for a conclusive agreement, citing the war-battered economy and the need for stability.
Six months into the Iran war has led to significant financial gains for US oil companies, which reported their highest profits since 2022, despite selling less oil. Brent crude prices surged 22% from $72 to $88 a barrel since the conflict began on February 28.12
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil, remains largely closed, impacting US energy firms. Rahul Choudhary from Rystad Energy noted that US companies' share of gas supplies from the region is expected to fall by 40% this year, with oil supplies dropping by 30-35%.3
Iran's leadership is deeply divided over the war's continuation. Pragmatists, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, advocate for a peace agreement, citing the war's toll on the economy and infrastructure. Pezeshkian stated, “The war must end at some point... while we are in a position of strength and dignity.”
Conversely, hardliners accuse moderates of mismanaging the economy to force a deal, with some alleging engineered fuel shortages. Sanam Vakil from Chatham House remarked that hardliners believe they can outlast the US, viewing the conflict as a means to strengthen their internal position.
The ongoing strikes by Iran-backed groups on Gulf energy infrastructure, which have targeted facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, further complicate the situation, with 172 attacks reported since the war's onset, according to ACLED.6
“Brent crude has risen about 22 percent since the war began, from $72 to $88 a barrel, while Iran and Iran-backed groups have launched at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure across the Gulf. ExxonMobil's LNG supply from Qatar is expected to fall to about four million tonnes this year from 13 million last year.”
