- Singapore's core inflation accelerated to 1.6% in June as oil risks from Gulf War shocks continue to linger.
- Food inflation accelerated to 2.1%, services inflation to 1.5%, and transport inflation to 7.5% in June.
- The MAS and MTI said global energy prices remain elevated and that higher costs will pass through supply chains with a lag, raising production and transport costs for imported goods.
- Economist Brian Lee expects core inflation to rise further amid lagged pass-through of higher energy and imported input costs from Gulf War shocks.
- Electricity and gas tariffs are set to rise by a record 17% starting July, after a negative 2.9% inflation print in June.
- The IMF forecasts Singapore’s core inflation to average 2.5% in H2 2026, within the MAS’s 1.5%-2.5% outlook.
- Barclays sees a close call on Monday and a significant risk that the MAS could raise the slope of its currency band; the monetary policy statement is likely to be hawkish.
Singapore's core inflation accelerated to 1.6% in June, up from 1.4% in May, as higher global energy costs began to impact consumer prices, according to the Singapore Department of Statistics. This figure fell short of the 1.7% median estimate from a Bloomberg survey.1
The all-items inflation rate was recorded at 1.9%, slightly below the 2% median estimate. Food inflation rose to 2.1%, while services inflation increased to 1.5% due to higher airfare and holiday expenses. Transport inflation surged to 7.5%.2
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) noted that global energy prices remain elevated and are expected to raise production and transport costs for a wider range of imported goods and services over time. Brian Lee, an economist at Maybank Securities, stated, “Core inflation will likely rise further in the coming months, amid the lagged pass-through of higher energy and imported input costs from Gulf War shocks.”
Despite the rise, the International Monetary Fund forecasts Singapore's core inflation to average 2.5% in the second half of the year, remaining within the MAS's 1.5%-2.5% outlook for 2026. Barclays economist Brian Tan suggested that the MAS might adopt a hawkish tone in its upcoming monetary policy statement, even if no immediate changes are made.7891011
“Food inflation accelerated to 2.1% and transport inflation to 7.5% in June, while electricity tariffs are set to rise 17% starting July. The MAS and MTI warned that elevated global energy prices will raise production and transport costs for imported goods over time.”
