- Sam Altman has admitted that he was too optimistic about how quickly AI would disrupt businesses and change the economy.
- In a recent podcast with David Senra, Altman reflected on his earlier predictions about AI and said he underestimated how much inertia there is in the economy.
- Altman had expected the release of GPT-4 in 2023 to trigger much faster disruption across the software industry, with established businesses becoming vulnerable to AI-powered alternatives almost immediately.
- Altman stated, "the economy just has so much inertia", indicating that people and companies tend to continue using the products and workflows they are familiar with even as new technology becomes available.
- He noted that this inertia could help make the transition "go smoother and slower", but it also means that society and the economy will adapt more slowly than anticipated.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently reflected on his earlier predictions regarding AI's impact on the economy, admitting he was overly optimistic about the speed of adoption. In a podcast with entrepreneur David Senra, he stated, “I thought when we got to GPT-4, which was back in 2023, that very quickly after that there was going to be much more disruption” across industries.123
Altman noted that while AI technology has progressed rapidly, “the economy just has so much inertia”, causing businesses and individuals to stick with familiar products and workflows. He explained, “People keep doing the same things, buying from the same company, wanting to use their tools the same way”, highlighting the challenges of changing behavior in the face of new technology.
This inertia, he argued, means that the economic effects of AI will unfold more gradually than he initially expected. “Society and the economy will adapt more slowly,” he said, suggesting that this slower pace could ultimately be beneficial. He described it as “a positive in many ways” that would allow for a smoother transition to AI integration.
Altman concluded that the ambitious timelines set by many in the tech industry may need to be reassessed, as the reality of adoption is proving to be more complex than anticipated.
Altman made the comments in a recent podcast with entrepreneur and investor David Senra.
“Altman had expected GPT-4's 2023 release to make software businesses vulnerable to AI-powered rivals almost immediately. He now says changing behavior is 'much harder than the tech nerds realise,' but sees the slower pace as 'a positive in many ways.'”
