- Recent skirmishes and drone strikes have escalated tensions in northern Ethiopia, leading to a declaration of all-out war by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) against the federal army.
- Seven rebel groups have united to form the Alliance for Survival, aiming to overthrow the government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
- Fighting has spread from Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict.
- Ethiopia's army has promised restraint amid fears of a new civil war, with Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula stating they are responding to provocations with 'wisdom and restraint.'
- The 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, but much of it remains unimplemented, leading to renewed fighting.
- Political divisions within Tigray are becoming increasingly visible, complicating the conflict and making it more difficult to contain.
Four years after a devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has declared all-out war against the federal army, igniting fears of a new civil conflict.
The TPLF's recent offensive has led to swift territorial gains, including the capture of regional airports.
Mr. Medhanie, a resident of Mekelle, noted, "Everyone heard the news of war and decided to make their way here. People have spent months withdrawing their savings from banks and stocking up on supplies. We were just sitting and waiting for a long time. [War] was inevitable."
Cameron Hudson, a former US state department official, warned that the situation could escalate into a wider regional war, merging with conflicts in Sudan and Somalia.
The Ethiopian military, under Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, claims to be responding with "wisdom and restraint" to provocations from the TPLF, while accusing Eritrea of supporting armed groups against Ethiopia.
The fighting has spread beyond Tigray into the Afar and Amhara regions, with seven armed groups forming the Alliance for Survival to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.3
The renewed violence threatens the fragile 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which had ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, and comes just weeks after the US lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea, citing an expired national emergency.6
“The TPLF declared all-out war and captured airports, while seven rebel groups formed the Alliance for Survival to oust Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Fighting has spread to Afar and Amhara, with the army reporting heavy losses for the TPLF in a counter-offensive.”
