TL;DR by CuriousCats.ai
El-Sayed leads in tight Michigan Senate primary
- With 93% of votes in, Abdul El-Sayed led the Democratic primary with 713,426 votes (48.8%) to Haley Stevens's 689,049 (47.2%); The Times's live estimate put El-Sayed narrowly ahead and forecast he was likely to win.
- El-Sayed’s early lead shrank from nearly 30 percentage points to less than 4 points; he was winning in-person voting while Stevens was carrying mail-in ballots by a similar margin.
- Detroit returns moved the race: a batch of more than 40,000 absentee votes favored Stevens, while later Election Day votes were much better for El-Sayed.
- After midnight, Stevens told supporters, 'But friends, I am feeling good about this race. I am feeling fired up.'
- Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out in July, endorsed El-Sayed with her 'full endorsement and support,' while the Associated Press had not yet called the race.
Context on the Michigan Senate primary
- Counties still had outstanding mail ballots, which could help Stevens, though late-arriving mail ballots have helped progressives elsewhere.
- Stevens’s bid was aided by about $60 million in outside money, which El-Sayed attacked; his campaign pointed to organizing.
- El-Sayed ran strongest in college counties and Dearborn, while Stevens narrowly led her home county of Oakland.
CuriousCats Full Story
Key Insight
“Stevens's bid was aided by about $60 million in outside money that El-Sayed relentlessly attacked, while his campaign pointed to organizing. Mallory McMorrow, who dropped out in July, endorsed El-Sayed early Wednesday as counties continued counting late-arriving mail ballots that could help Stevens.”
CuriousCats studied:
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The New York Times
“93% of votes in Democratic Primary | Candidate | Votes | Percent Pct.% | Chart showing percent | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Abdul El-SayedA. El-SayedEl-Sayed | 713,426 | +48.8% 48.8% | | | Haley StevensH. StevensStevens | 689,049 | +47.2% 47.2% | | | Mallory McMorrowM. McMorrowMcMorrow | 58,731 | +4.0% 4.0% | | | Total reported | 1,461,206 | | |”
The New York Times →Ask CuriousCats
What is the current status of the Michigan Senate primary?
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Why did Mallory McMorrow endorse El-Sayed?
Are outside funds influencing campaign outcomes?
How does this primary compare to previous elections?
