- Signals of a massive US attack on Iran continue to mount, with President Trump stating the U.S. is 'locked and loaded' and ready to act if necessary.
- Experts are skeptical that an intensified U.S. air strike campaign will break Iran or force concessions, as it is viewed as a war of survival for the nation.
- A new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Iran is unlikely to soften its negotiating stance as a result of intensified strikes.
- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged that 'air power's got limits' and stressed the need to pair military action with diplomatic efforts.
- A former senior U.S. intelligence official warned that without enforcing the naval blockade and applying economic pressure, 'you’re not going to bomb yourself into a ceasefire.'
- Michael 'Mick' Mulroy, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, stated it is 'unclear' if a more muscular air strikes campaign will bring Iran to the table.
- Expert Saeid Golkar noted that the U.S. is running out of targets because Iran has become more effective at hiding military assets.
- Iran has retaliated since July 7 by launching ballistic and cruise missiles and drones at Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.
- A U.S. official told The Hill the military is prepared for intensified action if the president orders one.
As U.S. military discussions intensify regarding potential strikes on Iran, experts express skepticism about the effectiveness of such actions.3
President Trump emphasized the military's readiness, stating, “We’re locked and loaded,” while acknowledging ongoing talks with Iran.12
However, analysts like Sina Azodi argue that “bombing from the air is not going to change Iran’s calculation,” as the nation views the conflict as a “war of survival.” A new intelligence assessment supports this, indicating that Iran is unlikely to soften its stance.
Michael Mulroy, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, noted that the U.S. options are limited, stating it is “unclear” if airstrikes will compel Iran to negotiate. Saeid Golkar highlighted the challenge of diminishing targets, asserting that “most of these targets are not very important” and that Iran has improved its ability to conceal military assets.8
The potential for increased military action raises concerns about regional stability, with experts warning that “the entire region is going to suffer more.” As Iran retaliates with missile strikes, the U.S. faces a complex situation where military might may not yield the desired diplomatic outcomes.
“A new US intelligence assessment concluded that Iran is unlikely to soften its negotiating stance as a result of intensified strikes. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine acknowledged that 'air power's got limits' and stressed the need to pair military action with diplomatic, informational, and economic instruments.”
