- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca, creating a new security alliance aimed at deterring Iran and offsetting weakened US deterrence.
- The pact includes a NATO-style clause that considers an attack on one country as an attack on all, but analysts doubt this provision will be enforced.
- Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had already signed a similar agreement last year, reflecting their growing security ties.
- Wealthy Saudi Arabia has positioned itself at the centre of this new alliance, signed in Islam's holiest city, Mecca.
- The alliance reflects a weakened US deterrence and the need for regional powers to manage the Iranian threat.
- The three countries are unusually complementary: Saudi Arabia has wealth but limited military-industrial depth, Turkey has technology and manufacturing capacity but needs markets and investment, and Pakistan has manpower, military institutional depth and nuclear deterrence but needs financing and industrial opportunities.
- The trio cannot replace the United States, but they are bridging a gap because Washington will not restrain Israel or insulate Gulf infrastructure from Iranian retaliation.
- The alliance is unlikely to attack Iran, as Pakistan has not hit its neighbour despite a similar pact, and the countries view themselves as stabilisers.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have formed a new defense alliance in Mecca, aiming to deter Iran and compensate for perceived U.S. weaknesses. The pact includes a NATO-style clause, but analysts question its enforceability amid ongoing regional conflicts.123
The alliance emerges as the Middle East war continues, with the U.S. struggling to counter Iran's influence. “American deterrence has been significantly weakened,” noted political analyst Ali Shihabi, emphasizing the need for regional powers to manage the Iranian threat.
Saudi Arabia, historically aligned with the U.S., is now at the center of this coalition, having strengthened ties with Turkey and Pakistan. “The three countries are unusually complementary,” said Andreas Krieg from King's College London, highlighting their unique strengths: Saudi wealth, Turkish technology, and Pakistani military depth.9
Despite the alliance, experts believe direct military action against Iran is unlikely. “Turkey and Pakistan will not fight Iran,” stated Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution, indicating that the countries aim to stabilize the region rather than escalate conflicts.
The pact serves as a political signal to both Iran and Israel, reflecting a shift in the Middle East's security dynamics as these nations seek multiple layers of security beyond U.S. support.
“The pact, signed in Islam's holiest city, reflects a weakened US deterrence as Washington has failed to deliver a knockout blow to Iran, while Tehran disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Analysts note the trio is unusually complementary, with Saudi wealth, Turkish technology, and Pakistani manpower and nuclear deterrence.”
