New York Fed finds K-shaped economy has driven spending patterns since 2023, with wealth diverging sharply between income groups

The New York Fed has confirmed that the K-shaped economy is impacting spending trends, particularly highlighting the growth disparity between high-income and lower-income households. Since 2023, high-income earners have seen substantial spending growth, while low-income households continue to struggle amid inflationary pressures.

Sources:
Liberty Street EconomicsYahoo Finance+2
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Sources: Business InsiderAxios
The New York Fed's latest findings highlight a pronounced K-shaped economy that has been shaping consumer spending patterns since 2023.
High-income households have reaped the benefits, evident from a 30% increase in net worth for the top 1% of earners since the year began, while the bottom 20% experienced a mere 13% rise.
Inflation impacts have disproportionately hit lower-income earners, particularly causing spending to restrain with rising gas prices forming a significant part of their budgets compared to 1.9% for their higher-income counterparts.
The retail spending growth rate for high-income households has increased by 7.6%, compared to 3% for middle-income and just over 1% for low-income households, fundamentally altering the spending landscape.
According to the New York Fed, the K-shaped spending pattern observed since 2023 diverged sharply from any economic behavior recorded during the pre-COVID and immediate post-COVID recovery periods.
Reliance on the affluent raises concerns about economic vulnerabilities and potential fragility in spending growth, particularly as financial assets continue to surge amidst a volatile stock market.
The ongoing trend emphasizes a need for policy focus on how disparities may shape overall economic recovery and sustainability.
Sources: Liberty Street EconomicsYahoo Finance
The New York Fed's recent study reveals a stark K-shaped economy that emerged in 2023, where high-income households, earning over $125,000, drove retail spending growth, in contrast to stagnant spending among low- and middle-income households, particularly following the expiration of pandemic-era subsidies.
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The Headline

K-shaped economy impacts spending and wealth

Key Facts
  • K-shaped economy has characterized spending patterns since 2023, with aggregate real consumer spending rising solidly during this time.Liberty Street Economics
  • The New York Fed confirms that higher-income households have driven this trend, with those earning over 40,000 seeing a consistent growth in spending.Liberty Street EconomicsYahoo Finance
  • The K-shaped spending trend began in 2023 after the fade of pandemic-era subsidies for low- and middle-income households, which saw spending fail to keep pace.Yahoo Finance
  • Higher income groups have experienced a substantial rise in real net worth, with the top 1% of earners seeing a 30% increase.Business Insider1
  • The disparity continues with middle-income households gaining about 3% and low-income households over just 1% since 2023.Axios
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Background Context

Context on wealth disparity and inflation

Key Facts
  • Financial assets have played a significant role, raising concerns about potential vulnerabilities in spending due to market corrections.Axios
  • Inflation disproportionately affects lower-income households, with these groups facing consistently higher rates compared to their wealthier counterparts.Business Insider1
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