Narrow majority of Icelanders back EU membership talks, poll shows ahead of Saturday referendum; gap narrows to 2.6 points

A recent poll shows that a narrow majority of Icelanders, 51.3%, support resuming negotiations with the European Union, while 48.7% oppose it. The gap has narrowed to 2.6 percentage points, down from 6.2 points in June, indicating shifting public sentiment.¹²³

The survey, conducted by Maskina from August 21-25 with 1,019 respondents, reflects growing interest in EU membership amid rising living costs and geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine. Reykjavik had previously abandoned EU talks in 2013 after four years of negotiations.

This referendum is not a direct vote on membership; any agreement would necessitate a second referendum on the terms negotiated. If the vote favors negotiations, a foreign ministry memo suggests that accession talks could commence by the end of 2026 and conclude within 18 to 24 months.

Iceland is already part of the European single market and the Schengen zone but lacks formal influence in EU decision-making. Membership would grant Iceland a voice in institutions like the European Commission and the European Parliament, and it would also involve joining the EU's customs union and potentially adopting the euro.