Mamata Banerjee alleges exit polls predictions made at BJP's behest to demoralise TMC workers; Phalodi Satta Bazar shows BJP edge in Bengal elections.

Mamata Banerjee has asserted that exit polls are manipulated by BJP to undermine her party's morale ahead of the May 4 counting. Current projections from betting markets suggest a competitive race, with oscillating estimates favoring BJP in West Bengal.

Sources:
The HinduDeccan Herald+1
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Sources: The HinduDeccan Herald
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee claimed on April 30 that exit polls are being manipulated by the BJP to demoralize her party workers ahead of the counting scheduled for May 4. She asserted her party, the TMC, would win over 226 seats in the Assembly elections.

In a video address, Banerjee alleged that television channels aired biased projections originating from the BJP office. According to latest analysis from the Phalodi Satta Bazar, an informal but influential betting market, the BJP is projected to secure between 150 and 152 seats, surpassing the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly. In contrast, the TMC is estimated to win 137 to 140 seats, highlighting a significant shift in momentum towards the BJP.

Earlier, projections had put the TMC ahead with expectations of winning 158 to 161 seats compared to BJP's 127 to 130 seats. This change speaks to a tightening contest, especially considering that the overall electoral turnout was approaching 92-93%, one of the highest in the state’s electoral history. The convergence of these factors suggests that West Bengal is on track for a closely contested electoral verdict.

However, not all polls aligned with this trend. Axis My India, which planned to release their exit polls, withheld the data due to a high non-response rate, stating the need for data credibility.
Sources: The Hindu
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee accused the BJP of manipulating exit polls to undermine her party, asserting TMC would secure over 226 seats. Meanwhile, the Phalodi Satta Bazar suggests the BJP is gaining ground with projections indicating 150-152 seats compared to TMC's 137-140 seats.
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The Headline

Banerjee alleges bias in exit polls; BJP leads

Key Facts
  • Mamata Banerjee alleged that exit poll projections were made at the instruction of the BJP to demoralize her party workers, asserting that the ruling party would win more than 226 seats in the Assembly polls.The Hindu
  • Projections from the Phalodi Satta Bazar indicate an edge for the BJP in Bengal elections, revising previous estimates.1
  • Latest exit poll projections suggest the BJP could secure 15012 seats, exceeding the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly.1
  • A broader poll of polls trend places BJP slightly ahead, aligned with Phalodi Satta Bazar estimates.

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Background Context

Context on exit polls and voter turnout

Key Facts
  • The betting market had previously projected the TMC to win 1581 seats and the BJP 1271 seats.1
  • High turnout at the polls was noted, nearing 923 percent, one of the highest in the state's electoral history.1
  • Axis My India decided to withhold its exit polls due to an exceptionally high non-response rate observed.Deccan Herald
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