- U.S. copper imports hit a 12-year record in July, exceeding 200,000 tonnes, which has pushed the country's total stockpile past 1 million tonnes.
- LME copper inventories have fallen to 204,975 tonnes, a decrease of 48% since late May, contributing to a severe market squeeze.
- Copper prices have gained as much as 1.7% on the London Metal Exchange, nearing record highs due to tightening supply and declining inventories.
- Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the United States to 640,000 tonnes, indicating a tightening supply outlook.
- Chilean production of copper has been mixed, with Escondida output rising 45.8% year-on-year, while Codelco's output declined by 4.8% in June.
- Washington has not yet ruled on proposed refined copper tariffs, with the odds of a 15% tariff landing on schedule estimated at just 14.6%.
- Tariff hedging is contributing to the squeeze outside the U.S., as Congo's ban on copper concentrate exports has led to reduced operations among Chinese smelters.
LME copper inventories have plummeted to 204,975 tonnes, a 48% decline since late May, as prices near $14,500 per tonne. The cash premium over three-month futures surged to $256.50 per tonne, indicating tight supply.2
A significant factor in this squeeze is the surge in U.S. imports, which exceeded 200,000 tonnes in July, marking the largest monthly total in 12 years. This influx is partly due to traders hedging against potential 15% tariffs on refined copper, which are still under consideration by Washington.6
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the U.S. to 640,000 tonnes, up from 60,000 tonnes, reinforcing the tightening supply outlook.4
The situation is exacerbated by declining inventories and production challenges in Chile, where a miner has lowered its 2026 production guidance due to extreme weather.
As a result, copper prices have risen sharply, with the cash premium indicating the highest level of nearby supply tightness since June 2025.3
The ongoing market dynamics suggest that the squeeze will continue as traders remain uncertain about the tariff decision, with Societe Generale estimating only a 14.6% chance of the proposed tariffs being implemented on schedule.
“LME copper inventories have plummeted to 204,975 tonnes, down 48% since late May, while the cash premium over three-month futures surged to $256.50 per tonne, indicating tight supply. Additionally, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the U.S. to 640,000 tonnes, highlighting ongoing supply challenges.”
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