- The Liberals are the heavy favourites in the Toronto and Vancouver byelections, but the race in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is a fierce battle between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois.
- A Segma Recherche poll shows Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil favoured by 40% of voters, while Bloc’s Caroline Dubé is close behind with 38%, within the poll's margin of error of about 5%.
- Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault, a lawyer, is in third place with 17% according to the poll.
- The outcome will depend on voter turnout, which could be difficult as attention is divided between the trade war with the U.S., the back-to-school period, and the Quebec election campaign.
- Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has spent nearly two weeks campaigning, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Carney have each visited once.
- A Bloc source expressed confidence and anticipated a late evening, while a Liberal source acknowledged the Bloc's good campaign but noted the trade war might tip the scales in the government's favour.
The Liberals are heavily favored in byelections in Toronto and Vancouver, but the race in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is proving to be a fierce contest against the Bloc Québécois.
The seat became vacant after Conservative MP Richard Martel was appointed to the Senate by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
In the last federal election, Martel won with a narrow majority of 34.1%, while the Bloc Québécois and the Liberals followed closely with 31.2% and 31.1% respectively.
A recent poll from Segma Recherche indicates that Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil, a former dairy lobby head, leads with 40% of voter support, while Bloc candidate Caroline Dubé is at 38%. The margin of error is around 5%, making the race extremely tight.
Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault trails with 17%. The outcome will depend on voter turnout, which may be affected by competing issues such as the trade war with the U.S. and the Quebec election campaign.
Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has campaigned extensively in the riding, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Carney have made limited visits. A Bloc source expressed confidence in their campaign, stating, “We want this; we want to win. And we’re fairly confident.” Meanwhile, a Liberal source acknowledged the Bloc's strong campaign but noted that the trade war could sway voters towards the government.
“A Segma Recherche poll shows Liberal Daniel Gobeil at 40% and Bloc's Caroline Dubé at 38%, within the margin of error. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet has campaigned nearly two weeks, while Poilievre and Carney each visited once.”
