- A US official said Iran and Oman could soon reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington lifting its blockade of Iranian ports once commercial shipping resumed without impediments.
- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected Washington's account, stating that reopening Hormuz depends on the United States accepting Iran's conditions, not on an agreement with Oman.
- Negotiators have agreed on coordinates for a route through Hormuz, but Iran still seeks to control incoming traffic and impose transit fees, both of which Washington rejects.
- Saudi Arabia, facing over 700 missiles and drones from Iran by late March, signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan, linking an attack on one to an attack on all.
- The deal must work for shipping companies; owners need guarantees against attacks, detention, or stranding, and insurers must provide coverage. US sanctions complicate Iran's demand for transit payments, as US persons and companies cannot pay Iran for safe passage.
- Some war-risk policies can terminate coverage when vessels pay certain Hormuz transit charges, creating a dilemma: refusing to pay risks the vessel, while paying risks problems with insurers or Washington.
- Iran cannot match the United States militarily but has learned to shift conflict costs onto others; a Hormuz restriction affects insurance contracts in London, LNG purchases in Qatar, energy bills in Asia, and political calculations in Washington.
- The pact raises questions about US protection; Gulf governments have watched the US use large quantities of air and missile defence weapons, and Riyadh is ensuring Washington is no longer its only option.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has firmly rejected U.S. claims regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that any agreement hinges on the U.S. accepting Iran's conditions, which include control over traffic and the imposition of transit fees.123
Negotiators have established coordinates for a route through Hormuz, but the U.S. opposes Iran's demands for transit payments, complicating the situation for shipping companies. Insurers are also wary, as vessels paying Iran could face sanctions or lose coverage.
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by Iran's military actions; by late March, it had launched over 700 missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia, prompting Riyadh to bolster its defenses.45
In response to these threats, Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Turkiye and Pakistan, establishing a mutual defense pact that could reshape military alliances in the region. This agreement raises questions about the reliability of U.S. support in prolonged conflicts, as Gulf states seek to diversify their security partnerships.
As tensions escalate, the implications of Iran's demands and the new defense pact could significantly impact regional stability and international shipping routes.
“Negotiators have agreed on coordinates for a route through Hormuz, but Iran still seeks to control incoming traffic and impose transit fees, which Washington rejects. Shipping companies face a dilemma as some war-risk policies terminate coverage when vessels pay certain Hormuz transit charges, and US sanctions complicate Iran's demand for payments.”
