India's shipping development plans are prompting a rethink of port expansion strategy; a shift away from sheer capacity-focused planning

India's shipping development plans are undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from a focus on sheer capacity to a more strategic, demand-driven approach. As of March this year, the country’s ports had a combined handling capacity of nearly 2,762 million tonnes, with actual cargo traffic at about 1,668 million tonnes, reflecting around 60 per cent utilisation.

International port planning practices suggest that around 70 per cent utilisation is optimal, balancing flexibility with congestion control. The MAKV 2047 plan aims to create nearly 10,000 million tonnes of port handling capacity by 2047, but projected cargo traffic, assuming a 6 per cent annual growth, is estimated at only 5,630 million tonnes.

This discrepancy indicates that a planned capacity of around 8,000 million tonnes would suffice to meet future demand, underscoring the necessity for demand-driven infrastructure planning. Rising competition among ports, especially with the rapid expansion of private ports, has led to overlapping infrastructure development and dispersed cargo movement, further emphasizing the need for realistic demand forecasting, integrated logistics planning, and continuous market assessment.¹²³⁴

Experts advocate that future port development should align capacity with realistic cargo demand projections to ensure efficiency and sustainability in India's shipping sector.