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India weighs gold import duty cut to curb smuggling; silver imports slump 23% in H1 on policy tightening, festive demand offers hope

India is considering cutting gold import duties to combat smuggling, as silver imports plummeted 23% in the first half of 2026 due to tightened regulations. The upcoming festive season may boost demand, with expectations of improved inventory levels as jewelers prepare for increased purchases.

Shanghai Metals Market27 August 2026 · 15:54 UTC
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India's silver imports fell 23% in H1 2026 due to stricter regulations implemented in May, which raised customs duties and required import authorizations.

Imports totaled just 1,843 mt, significantly down from previous years, as traders faced hurdles with documentation and compliance.1

Despite these challenges, the upcoming festive season, particularly the first day of Diwali, known as 'Dhanteras', is expected to drive demand, with consumption during the festival reaching 800–1,000 mt in 2025.

India's silver demand is projected to exceed 7,000 mt by 2025, primarily for jewelry and electronic components.

Recent reports indicate that India imported approximately 89.81 mt of silver via the IIBX platform in August, ending a six-month import drought.3

However, logistical issues persist, with shipments requiring a 'Certificate of Origin' and customs clearance taking weeks.5

As the festive season approaches, jewelers are expected to restock, potentially boosting imports and alleviating current inventory pressures.

Market conditions remain challenging, with domestic silver premiums averaging around $4/oz and supply recovery not yet fully realized.6

Key Insight
“India's H1 silver imports fell to 1,843 mt, with Hong Kong exports shrinking to just 124 mt amid the US-Iran war and high China premiums. New Certificate of Origin rules are delaying customs clearance, though 400 mt of import permits have been approved and the 30-day premium remains near $4/oz.”
The Big C | Gold Prices, Duty Rumours & New Buying Trends | IBJA Secy Explains | CNBC TV18 Prime
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The Big C | Gold Prices, Duty Rumours & New Buying Trends | IBJA Secy Explains | CNBC TV18 Prime
CuriousCats studied:
1
Shanghai Metals Market
“Since May this year, India has imposed a series of restrictions on silver imports: on May 13, the basic customs duty on gold and silver imports was raised from 5% to 10%; on May 16, it further required import authorization and expanded the scope of regulated silver products; starting in June, the import status of some silver products was changed from “free” to “restricted,” with silver granules and powder also added to the restricted list.”
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