- Gold returned 9% in August, around five times the broader equity market's return, while gold miners gained 21%, according to Vallum Capital's August Macro Grid Chartbook.
- Gold's sharp rebound above $4,600 an ounce has revived the question for investors: is this the time to get back into gold and silver after the recent correction?
- Vallum Capital suggests that investors should “reload” gold and silver, arguing that the correction did not break the precious-metals thesis.
- The latest rally has been helped by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar after the US Treasury announced larger purchases of longer-dated government bonds.
- Supply has barely responded to higher prices: mine production rose just 2%, recycled gold fell 6% and total supply was flat, Vallum said.
- Vallum estimates above-ground gold at around $31 trillion, against $102 trillion of major central-bank money supply and roughly $350 trillion of global debt.
- From 2021 to 2026, silver has gained 263%, against 164% for gold. Yet the gold-silver ratio remains around 69 times, above its long-run median of 45–50x, Vallum said.
Gold's recent rebound above $4,600 an ounce has reignited investor interest in gold and silver, particularly after a 9% return in August, which outperformed the broader equity market by five times.2
According to Vallum Capital, this correction did not undermine the precious-metals thesis, suggesting that now may be the time for investors to “reload” on these assets.
The rally has been supported by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, following the US Treasury's announcement of larger purchases of longer-dated government bonds.4
Despite a significant increase in central bank purchases—288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, a 411% increase quarter-on-quarter—Western ETF outflows reached 44.8 tonnes, and jewelry demand fell by 17%.
Supply dynamics remain challenging, with mine production rising only 2%, recycled gold falling 6%, and total supply remaining flat. Vallum estimates that above-ground gold is valued at around $31 trillion, compared to $102 trillion of major central-bank money supply and approximately $350 trillion of global debt.6
From 2021 to 2026, silver has outperformed gold with a 263% gain compared to gold's 164%, yet the gold-silver ratio remains high at around 69 times, above its long-run median of 45–50x.7
“Central banks bought 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 411% quarter-on-quarter, even as Western ETF outflows hit 44.8 tonnes and jewellery demand fell 17%. Vallum estimates above-ground gold at $31 trillion against $102 trillion of central-bank money supply.”
