- Gold prices fell sharply as rising Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. dollar, and a renewed crude-oil spike outweighed safe-haven demand tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
- At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,047.80 an ounce, down 1.98%, while spot silver was trading near $57.64, down 3.46% on the session.
- Gold's session range was $4,039.40 to $4,141.70, leaving the metal below the $4,100 area and near the lower end of its daily range after failing at trendline resistance.
- Brent crude traded above $100 during the session after attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and renewed fighting linked to Iran-backed forces widened the energy-security shock beyond Hormuz.
- Gold prices hovered around $4,050 per ounce on Friday, holding a nearly 2% decline in the previous session, as surging oil prices fueled by the escalating Middle East conflict strengthened the case for tighter US monetary policy.
- The 10-year Treasury yield traded near the 4.7% area, and the dollar stayed firm as traders priced a higher inflation-risk premium into the curve.
- Higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, boosting expectations of tighter Fed policy and pressuring non-yielding assets.
- Markets currently assign a 34% probability to a Fed rate hike next week, while the odds of a September increase have climbed above 78%.
- Gold is still heading for a modest weekly gain.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% to around $4,050 an ounce as rising Treasury yields and surging oil prices pressured the metal. Spot silver also declined, trading near $57.64, down 3.46% on the session.125
The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.7%, while the dollar remained firm, reflecting traders' concerns over inflation risks. Brent crude traded above $100 after attacks on Saudi oil tankers heightened energy security fears, further pressuring non-yielding assets like gold.46
Gold's session range was $4,039.40 to $4,141.70, with a sustained move below $4,039.40 threatening its short-term recovery. Conversely, a close above $4,075 could ease immediate downside pressure. Silver's range was $57.21 to $60.95, with bears targeting a break below $58.73.3
Market sentiment was further impacted by President Donald Trump's warnings of expanded military action against Iran, which contributed to inflation fears and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Currently, markets assign a 34% probability to a Fed rate hike next week, with odds for a September increase climbing above 78%.8
Despite the recent declines, gold is still heading for a modest weekly gain amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.9
“Brent crude surged above $100 for the first time since May after attacks on Saudi oil tankers, while the 10-year Treasury yield neared 4.7% as traders priced higher inflation risk. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike next week rose to 34%, adding pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.”
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