- Gold ended the previous week nearly 1% higher, supported by softer U.S. data—consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months and retail sales posted their biggest monthly drop in more than a year—which reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy.
- Gold moved above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April last week, with central banks buying 244 tonnes in Q1 2026—the strongest quarterly total since Q4 2024—and China accelerating purchases to 8 tonnes in April, its biggest monthly addition since December 2024.
- On Monday, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,408.12 an ounce and gold futures gained 0.6% to $4,464.30, as investors balanced weaker U.S. data against energy-market risks.
- ANZ expects deteriorating international relations to keep central-bank diversification demand relevant and sees gold rising toward $5,200 an ounce by year-end.
- Investors will get a closer look at policymakers’ thinking on Wednesday when the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting are released, while geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—including attacks on ships and U.S. preparations for further pressure on Iran—have kept energy supply outlooks volatile.
- Any renewed rise in oil prices could feed inflation and make it harder for the Fed to move toward easier monetary policy, while gold’s recovery above the key $4,000-an-ounce threshold has been supported by stronger investor demand and increased central-bank buying, particularly from China.
- The inverse relationship between gold and U.S. Treasury yields has strengthened, according to ANZ analysts, who expect gold’s performance over the next year to develop in three stages: near-term pressure, an economic slowdown from an energy shock, and eventual support from monetary easing.
Gold prices rose 0.7% to $4,408.12 an ounce as investors reacted to weaker U.S. economic data and renewed energy-market risks. The Federal Reserve's upcoming July meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into future interest rate decisions.78
The U.S. consumer sentiment has declined for the first time in three months, and retail sales experienced their largest monthly drop in over a year, easing fears of an imminent rate increase. This has supported gold, which does not yield interest income.
ANZ analysts noted that the inverse relationship between gold and U.S. Treasury yields has strengthened, with higher borrowing costs impacting bullion. They predict gold's trajectory will unfold in three stages: initial pressure from persistent inflation, followed by an economic slowdown due to an energy shock, and ultimately, support from monetary easing.1516
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where several ships were attacked, have contributed to a volatile outlook for global energy supplies. Any rise in oil prices could exacerbate inflation, complicating the Fed's path to easier monetary policy.
Central banks, especially in China, have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 244 tonnes bought in Q1 2026, the highest since Q4 2024. ANZ forecasts gold could reach $5,200 an ounce by year-end as demand from central banks remains strong.4569
“Spot gold climbed 0.7% to $4,408.12 an ounce, with silver and platinum each up 1.8%, while the dollar index slipped 0.1%. Central banks bought 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, the strongest quarterly total since Q4 2024, with China accelerating purchases to 8 tonnes in April.”
