- Flávio Bolsonaro surged into a tie with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a new poll, erasing a 4.5-point gap as a crisis inside Brazil’s Supreme Court weighs on the leftist leader’s reelection bid.
- The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, released Thursday, shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 46.4% to Lula's 46.2%, marking a statistical deadlock ahead of October’s presidential election.
- This result marks a dramatic reversal from late August, when Lula led 47.1% to 42.6%, a 4.5-percentage-point advantage.
- Lula's approval rating dropped to 44%, the lowest level recorded by AtlasIntel since the polling firm began tracking the metric in early 2024.
- In May, Flávio Bolsonaro suffered a nearly 7-point drop in voter support after revelations surfaced that he had solicited funds from Vorcaro prior to the banker's arrest to finance a biographical documentary about his father.
- Tensions erupted publicly after Supreme Court Justice Andre Mendonca lifted judicial secrecy on Federal Police reports detailing private communications between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master SA.
- The leaked messages appear to reveal close ties and undisclosed communications between Moraes and Vorcaro, giving weight to criticisms regarding improper connections between senior judges and financial interests.
- President Lula has actively sought to distance his government from the judicial rift, calling for full transparency and asserting that any individual involved in wrongdoing must be held accountable 'regardless of who they are or whom it might harm.'
Flávio Bolsonaro has made significant gains in the polls, now statistically tied with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a Supreme Court crisis unfolds. The latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey shows Bolsonaro at 46.4% and Lula at 46.2%, marking a dramatic shift from late August when Lula led by 4.5 percentage points.1234
The political landscape has shifted due to tensions within Brazil's Supreme Court, particularly after Justice Andre Mendonca lifted judicial secrecy on Federal Police reports that revealed communications between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, a former banker. These revelations have raised concerns about the integrity of the judiciary and its connections to financial interests.7
In response, Lula has called for transparency, insisting that any wrongdoing must be addressed, stating, "regardless of who they are or whom it might harm." Meanwhile, Lula's approval rating has dropped to 44%, the lowest since early 2024, amid ongoing corruption allegations involving his family and a sluggish economy. Bolsonaro's rise comes after a nearly 7-point drop in support earlier this year, linked to his solicitation of funds from Vorcaro for a documentary about his father.56
As the October elections approach, the political dynamics in Brazil are increasingly volatile, with the Supreme Court crisis potentially reshaping voter sentiment.
“The leaked messages appear to reveal undisclosed communications between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro, fueling criticism of improper judge-financial ties. Lula's approval has dropped to 44%, the lowest since early 2024, amid a sluggish economy and corruption allegations involving one of his sons.”
