Experts say U.S. tariffs on Canada likely to persist beyond Trump; new 50% tariffs take effect as trade talks break down

Experts predict that U.S. tariffs on Canada will likely endure beyond President Trump's term, with new 50% tariffs already in effect. Political science associate professor Aaron Ettinger emphasizes, “I don’t see this changing any time soon... it’s wishful thinking to think we can hold our breaths.”⁵⁶

The recent tariffs were implemented as trade negotiations faltered, with Prime Minister Mark Carney noting that the U.S. demands were excessive and offered little in return. “Canada needs to be prepared for a tariff regime coming from the United States that continues beyond the Trump administration,” he stated.¹²

A report from Deloitte indicated that businesses are hesitant to invest due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which could impact hiring and expansion plans. “Businesses on both sides of the border have already adapted to the tariff system,” Ettinger remarked, highlighting the challenges of reverting to a pre-Trump trade environment.

Even if the political landscape shifts, “these tariffs are going to have cascading effects and echoing effects all down the line,” Ettinger warned. The potential for a Democratic-controlled Congress to alter tariff laws exists, but it would require cooperation from Trump, who is unlikely to concede power. “It’d be very easy for any subsequent president to use the legislation that Trump has used to impose these tariffs to get rid of them probably literally overnight,” said Prof. Asa McKercher.

As the U.S. approaches midterm elections, the future of these tariffs remains uncertain, but experts agree that Canada must brace for a prolonged period of trade challenges.