- Computer model projections show this El Niño will become the strongest since at least 1950, and it is extremely unusual for all models to predict a strong-to-record event through winter and into 2027.
- A typical El Niño boosts global temperatures, and the predicted record peak is expected to set records for the warmest years; UN Secretary-General António Guterres called it adding fuel to a planet already on fire and said we are in uncharted territory.
- High-certainty forecasts give cities, farmers, and aid agencies time to prepare for extreme heat, heavy rainfall, drought, or floods; Shaman advises water-shortage planning and says now is really the time to get ready.
Most computer model projections indicate this El Niño will be the strongest since at least 1950, with effects expected to last through 2027.12
El Niño events, characterized by hotter ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, transfer heat to the atmosphere, leading to significant weather changes.
Shaman notes, "It is extremely unusual to have all computer models used to predict El Niño agree that a strong to record strong event will continue through the winter and potentially well into 2027."678
The impacts of this El Niño are complex; while stronger events typically lead to more predictable outcomes, researchers assert that a stronger El Niño does not always equate to worse conditions.
Shaman explains, “With a stronger El Niño we certainly think that the likelihood that you will see those teleconnections manifest is more likely.”
Forecasts suggest heat waves, droughts, and floods could occur globally, with specific regions like Indonesia and Australia facing drought, while the U.S. may experience a milder winter and wetter conditions in the south.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked, “El Niño is strengthening — adding fuel to a planet already on fire.”345
Experts stress the need for proactive measures, advising cities to prepare for extreme weather and farmers to adjust crop strategies.
Shaman emphasizes, “Because of the forecasts and the high certainty, now is really the time to get ready.”
“UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned Friday that El Niño is “adding fuel to a planet already on fire,” saying “we are in uncharted territory.” Shaman advised that with high-certainty forecasts, “now is really the time to get ready” for floods, drought, and extreme heat.”
