KuCoin- Brent crude may drop to $70 as geopolitical tensions ease and supply increases.
- Prices fell to $77–78 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, boosting flows.
- Analysts see a possible test of $70 in late 2026 or early 2027.
- On June 23, Brent crude oil prices have retreated to around $77–78 per barrel, a significant decline from the peak of the conflict.
- According to data from the U.S. Central Command, daily throughput reached 17 million barrels over the weekend.
- Bloomberg, citing data from the past three days, estimates approximately 20 million barrels per day, indicating that flows have largely fully recovered.
- Goldman Sachs believes that, in the long term, transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz will decline to around 70% of the level seen at the end of February.
- China’s imports stood at 12.6 million barrels per day, but during the second quarter, they fell sharply by approximately 3.3 million barrels per day compared to the same period in 2025.
- Latest data shows that China's crude oil imports in May have fallen to a multi-year low (around 7.8 million barrels per day).
- In the short term, the recent strength in prices is linked to the U.S. granting Iran a 60-day license to sell oil for U.S. dollars.
- Iraq has called on companies to rapidly increase production to over 3 million barrels per day, adding further downward pressure on the oil market.
- Most analysts believe a level near $70 is more likely to be seen in the second half of 2026 or early 2027.
Brent crude oil prices are currently around $77-78 per barrel, a significant decline from earlier peaks amid geopolitical tensions. As the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil flows have increased, leading analysts to predict a potential drop to $70 by late 2026 or early 2027.13712
According to data from the U.S. Central Command, daily throughput reached 17 million barrels over the weekend, with Bloomberg estimating approximately 20 million barrels per day in recent days, indicating a recovery in oil flows.56
China's crude oil imports have also seen a decline, falling to a multi-year low of around 7.8 million barrels per day in May, down from 12.6 million barrels per day earlier in the year. This drop in demand, coupled with Iraq's call for increased production to over 3 million barrels per day, adds further downward pressure on the oil market.8911
Most analysts believe that a level near $70 is more likely to be seen in the second half of 2026 or early 2027, as transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to decline to around 70% of the levels seen at the end of February, according to Goldman Sachs.
“Brent crude prices are projected to decline to $70 as geopolitical tensions ease and supply increases. Analysts suggest this may occur in late 2026 or early 2027.”
