- Quad has attempted to counterbalance China's rise for nearly two decades.
- Under US President Donald Trump, starting January 2025, the coalition has sputtered as Washington pivots away from the region.
- The Tuesday meeting of the Quad aims at agreeing on a summit date to avoid irrelevance.
- The grouping received only a single passing mention in Trump’s National Security Strategy unveiled in late 2025.
- China increasingly doubts whether the four countries share the same long-term strategic vision or level of commitment.
- The redeployment of US forces and warships from the Asia Pacific to the Middle East has further deepened unease within the bloc.
- Tokyo has deepened security partnerships with Australia, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom through the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) as a hedge against an unpredictable Washington.
For nearly two decades, multiple iterations of the Quad have struggled to forge a cohesive strategy against China's rise in the Asia-Pacific.15
However, analysts indicate that under Trump’s upcoming second term starting January 2025, U.S. focus is shifting away, diminishing attention on the coalition.
The Tuesday meeting of the Quad purportedly aims to set a summit date to prevent further irrelevance, a sentiment echoed by experts like Ariga, who stressed the urgency for unity.3
China’s skepticism regarding the Quad's commitment underscores deeper concerns, as the U.S. has begun redeploying military resources from Asia to focus on the Middle East, amplifying unease within the bloc.6
Moreover, Japan's initiatives to strengthen ties with Australia, Philippines, and the UK reflect hesitance regarding Washington's reliability, showing a clear hedging strategy against an unpredictable U.S. stance. As tensions continue to rise, the relevance of the Quad hangs in a delicate balance.
“The Quad has struggled for nearly two decades to forge a united front against China, now facing diminishing significance. Recent shifts in US foreign policy under Trump threaten the coalition's cohesion as concerns about mutual commitment grow.”
