- Memory accounted for around 10% of the BOM cost of Pro models a year ago, but that share is estimated to have risen to around 34% in the third quarter of 2026 and could exceed 40% in the first half of 2027 if memory prices continue climbing.
- TrendForce expects the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro to face substantial cost pressure when it launches in the third quarter of 2026.
- By reducing its gross margin, Apple could limit the extent of any retail price increase, which may help protect demand, maintain shipment volumes and strengthen its smartphone market share.
- Apple could also reconsider the pricing of older iPhone models when the new generation launches, as higher prices for previous-generation models could help offset some of the additional memory costs.
- TrendForce noted that memory prices have increased several times since the beginning of 2025, and continued increases could force some manufacturers to raise prices substantially or discontinue models that become unprofitable, while global smartphone production is expected to remain under pressure from the second half of 2026 through 2027.
Apple's iPhone 18 Pro is projected to see a significant price hike due to rising memory costs, which are expected to account for 34% of the bill of materials (BOM) by Q3 2026, up from 10% a year prior, according to TrendForce.
The research firm estimates that the BOM cost for the 256 GB iPhone 18 Pro could increase by approximately 38% year-on-year compared to its 2025 predecessor. If memory prices continue to rise, this share could exceed 40% in the first half of 2027.38910
TrendForce warns that Apple may face substantial cost pressures when the iPhone 18 Pro launches, potentially leading the company to absorb some of the additional expenses by accepting lower gross margins. This strategy mirrors Apple's recent approach with MacBook pricing, aiming to limit retail price increases and protect demand.45
By reducing its gross margin, Apple could maintain shipment volumes and strengthen its smartphone market share. Additionally, the company might reconsider pricing for older iPhone models to offset the increased memory costs, potentially raising prices for previous-generation models.
TrendForce has noted that memory prices have risen multiple times since early 2025, and continued increases could pressure global smartphone production from the second half of 2026 through 2027, forcing some manufacturers to raise prices or discontinue unprofitable models.
“TrendForce estimates memory's share of Pro model BOM cost could exceed 40% in H1 2027 if prices keep climbing. Apple might reduce gross margins or raise prices of older iPhones to offset the increase and protect demand.”
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