- Morgan Stanley says SpaceX at $100 would imply investors are assigning zero value to its artificial intelligence business.
- Analyst Jonas noted that many investors expect SpaceX's stock price to fall further to $100 per share when a lockup on the first batch of shares unlocks next month.
- At the $100 level, investors are pricing in zero or even negative value from SpaceX's AI segment.
- Jonas mentioned that most investors significantly discount Grok & Cursor, as many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI due to high capex requirements.
- Jonas has a $300 price target on SpaceX's stock, with more than 50% attributed to the company's AI segment.
- SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI, with Jonas seeing the current valuation as an attractive entry point.
- The selloff in SpaceX shares comes as investors have broadly rotated away from technology firms committed to spending on AI infrastructure.
- Despite the selloff, nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying shares, according to Bloomberg data.
- The average price target of about $232 implies the stock will more than double from current trading levels.
- Jonas is among the most bullish on Wall Street regarding SpaceX, with his price target being the third highest among 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
- SpaceX has had a rocky trading debut after its record $86 billion offering in mid-June.
- Shares initially surged nearly 50% in the first three sessions but have since tumbled, touching a low of $110.85 earlier this week.
Morgan Stanley analysts have indicated that SpaceX's stock could drop to $100, suggesting that investors are attributing no value to its artificial intelligence (AI) business.16
According to Jonas, many investors anticipate this decline as a lockup period for insiders ends next month, allowing them to sell shares. At this price point, he argues, the market is pricing in zero or even negative value for the AI segment, which includes products like Grok & Cursor.234
Jonas noted, "Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor. Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business."
Despite the selloff, nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying shares, reflecting a strong belief in the company's long-term potential. The average price target is around $232, indicating that analysts expect the stock to more than double from its current levels.9
Morgan Stanley's Jonas remains one of the most optimistic analysts, with a price target of $300, attributing over 50% of this target to the AI segment. He stated, "SpaceX remains uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI. We see the current valuation as an attractive entry point."
The stock has experienced significant volatility since its record $86 billion offering in mid-June, initially surging nearly 50% before falling to a low of $110.85, which is 18% below the IPO price.1213
“Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has a $300 price target on SpaceX, with over 50% ascribed to AI, and notes that many investors assign zero or negative value to Grok and Cursor due to high capex and uncertain economics. The selloff comes as investors rotate away from tech firms spending heavily on AI.”
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